Market Focus: This week, we get more news on housing, with existing home sales on Tuesday and new home sales this Wednesday. Also out Thursday are the latest numbers on durable-goods orders, as well as the weekly jobless claims. This week, the primary focus will again be on the Europe. While I don’t expect anything dramatic from the G8 leaders some investors are still wondering whether Greece will leave the euro along with fresh concerns over Spain and Ireland.

Monday:

Chicago Fed. National Activity Index: The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is a monthly index designed to better gauge overall economic activity and inflationary pressure. The 85 economic indicators that are included in the CFNAI are drawn from four broad categories of data: production and income; employment, unemployment, and hours; personal consumption and housing; and sales, orders, and inventories. Each of these data series measures some aspect of overall macroeconomic activity. The derived index provides a single, summary measure of a factor common to these national economic data. What it means to you: This index is unique among regional Federal Reserve Bank indexes in that it is national in scope. Investors are eager to have insight into economic growth and inflation.

Dennis Lockhart (Atlanta Federal Reserve President) Speaks

Tuesday:

Existing Home Sales: Existing home sales tally the number of previously constructed homes, condominium and co-ops in which a sale closed during the month. Existing homes (also known as home re-sales) account for a larger share of the market than new homes and indicate housing market trends. The consensus estimate is for an increase from an anemic 4.48 million units to 4.66 million units. What it means to you: This provides a gauge of not only the demand for housing, but the economic momentum. In a more specific sense, trends in the existing home sales data carry valuable clues for the stocks of home builders, mortgage lenders and home furnishings companies.

Richmond Fed MFG Index: This survey provides a comprehensive set of indicators of business conditions within the fifth region’s manufacturing sector. The survey provides participants’ knowledge of recent changes in manufacturing activity as well as insights into expected developments in six months. The data are released the fourth Tuesday of each month. The headline index is the composite for current month activity. It is a weighted average of the shipments. . What it means to you: By tracking economic data such as the Richman Fed index, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for the various markets. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers more moderate growth so that it won’t lead to inflation. The Richmond Fed index gives a detailed look at the manufacturing sector, how busy it is and where things are headed.

ICSC Goldman Store Sales:  This weekly measure of comparable store sales at major retail chains, published by the International Council of Shopping Centers, is related to the general merchandise portion of retail sales. It accounts for roughly 10 percent of total retail sales. What it means to you: Consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of the economy, so if you know what consumers are up to, you’ll have a pretty good handle on where the economy is headed.

Redbook: A weekly measure of sales at chain stores, discounters, and department stores. It is a less consistent indicator of retail sales than the weekly ICSC index. What it means to you: The pattern in consumer spending is often the foremost influence on stock and bond markets.

Wednesday:

New Home Sales: New home sales measure the number of newly constructed homes with a committed sale during the month. The consensus estimate is for 335,000 slightly more than last month’s anemic 328,000. What it means to you: This provides a gauge of not only the demand for housing, but the economic momentum. By tracking economic data such as new home sales, investors can gain specific investment ideas as well as broad guidance for managing a portfolio.

FHFA House Price Index: The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index (HPI) covers single-family housing, using data provided by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The House Price Index is derived from transactions involving conforming conventional mortgages purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. The consensus estimate is for a reading the same as last month’s .3%.What it means to you: Home values affect much in the economy — especially the housing and consumer sectors. Periods of rising home values encourage new construction while periods of soft home prices can damp housing starts. Changes in home values play key roles in consumer spending and in consumer financial health.

5 year Note Auction

EIA Petroleum Report: The Energy Information Administration (EIA) provides weekly information on petroleum inventories in the U.S. The level of inventories helps determine prices for petroleum products. What it means to you: Petroleum product prices are determined by supply and demand – just like any other good and service. During periods of strong economic growth, one would expect demand to be robust. If inventories are low, this will lead to increases in crude oil prices – or price increases for a wide variety of petroleum products such as gasoline or heating oil.

Thursday:

Durable Goods: Durable goods orders reflect the new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for immediate and future delivery of factory hard goods. The first release, the advance, provides an early estimate of durable goods orders. About two weeks later, more complete and revised data are available in the factory orders report. The data for the previous month are usually revised a second time upon the release of the new month’s data. The Consensus Estimate is for an increase from last month’s -4.2% to .5%. What it means to you: Durable goods orders tell investors what to expect from the manufacturing sector, a major component of the economy, and therefore a major influence on their investments. Orders for durable goods show how busy factories will be in the months to come, as manufacturers work to fill those orders. The data not only provide insight to demand for items such as refrigerators and cars, but also business investment such as industrial machinery, electrical machinery and computers. If companies commit to spending more on equipment and other capital, they are obviously experiencing sustainable growth in their business. Increased expenditures on investment goods set the stage for greater productive capacity in the country and reduce the prospects for inflation.

Jobless Claims: New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smoothes out weekly volatility. The consensus estimate is for an increase from 370,000 to 371,000. What it means to you: By tracking the number of jobless claims, investors can gain a sense of how tight, or how loose, the job market is. If wage inflation threatens, it’s a good bet that interest rates will rise.

Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index: A weekly, random-sample survey tracking Americans’ views on the condition of the U.S. economy, their personal finances and the buying climate. What it means to you: The pattern in consumer attitudes can be a key influence on stock and bond markets. Consumer spending drives two-thirds of the economy and if the consumer is not confident, the consumer will not be willing to spend. Confidence impacts consumer spending which affects economic growth.

Money Supply

Friday:

Consumer Sentiment: The University of Michigan’s Consumer Survey Center questions 500 households each month on their financial conditions and attitudes about the economy. Consumer sentiment is directly related to the strength of consumer spending. Consumer confidence and consumer sentiment are two ways of talking about consumer attitudes. The consensus estimate is to remain the same as last month at 77.8. What it means to you:  Consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of the economy, so the markets are always dying to know what consumers are up to and how they might behave in the near future. The more confident consumers are about the economy and their own personal finances, the more likely they are to spend. With this in mind, it’s easy to see how this index of consumer attitudes gives insight to the direction of the economy.

Early Close for Memorial Day Holiday

Within every market there are obstacles and solutions on the path to tremendous opportunities. Vince and I think most people are looking for practical advice. Please feel free to call 215-740-8999 or visit peterbuchsbaum.com.

Please join us live on the web at www.wbcb1490.com from 9:00am to 10:00 am every Friday.

So last week we discussed the current real estate market with James and Lauren Cronmiller and how having a team is a benefit. . This week was full of great current events: Ally Bank Filed for Bankruptcy Protection. So a mortgage lender owned and funded by my tax dollars can file for protection from creditors but if I do it I cannot get a mortgage for several years. I am not sure that makes sense on any level. Should the $2 billion loss (soon to be $4 billion) at J P Morgan be a reason for tighter rules? I am not sure that more is better but maybe better is better. Fix the problem don’t just slap another regulation in place. More intriguing is the fact that the CEO will still get his $23 million bonus. Seriously? Finally foreclosure filings are down to the lowest level since 2007. If however you read between the lines they are down in the hardest hit areas and now are gaining in areas like PA and NJ.

Today we have the opportunity to spend an hour with Joseph Willse or New York Life. Joseph is a graduate of St. Joseph’s University (no relation). He also has his MBA from New York University’s Leonard Stern’s School of Business. Joseph’s passion for people, community and finance has made him a great success in his field.

Please join us live at www.wbcb1490.com for the open discussion with Joseph as we explore mortgage lending as another tool in the financial planning shed. .

Each week we discuss the myths of the mortgage market. It is not about rate. A higher rate with no mortgage insurance may provide a lower payment.

Market Focus: Volatility should be this week’s mantra. JP Morgan Chase, Greece and a thin calendar. All of this should make for a choppy week.

Monday:

No Reports

Tuesday:

CPI: The Consumer Price Index is a measure of the average price level of a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by consumers. Monthly changes in the CPI represent the rate of inflation.   The consensus estimate is for an increase of 0% after last month’s .5% increase and an increase in the core rate of .2% (same last month’s .2%).  What it means to you: The consumer price index is the most widely followed monthly indicator of inflation. The CPI is considered a cost-of-living measure since it is used to adjust contracts of all types that are tied to inflation. For monetary policy, the Federal Reserve generally follows “headline” and “core” inflation. This latter measure excludes the volatile food and energy components. The Fed’s preferred inflation measure is not the CPI but the personal consumption price index because it reflects what consumers are actually buying during any given period-the component weights are updated annually while those for the CPI are updated infrequently.

Retail Sales: Retail sales measure the total receipts at stores that sell durable and nondurable goods. Consumer spending accounts for two-thirds of GDP and is therefore a key element in economic growth. The consensus estimate is for a rise of .1% after last month’s .8%. And an increase of .0.3% excluding autos after last month’s .7% increase. What it means to you: Retail sales are a major indicator of consumer spending trends because they account for nearly one-half of total consumer spending and approximately one-third of aggregate economic activity.

Empire State MFG: The New York Fed conducts this monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State. Participants from across the state represent a variety of industries. On the first of each month, the same pool of roughly 175 manufacturing executives (usually the CEO or the president) is sent a questionnaire to report the change in an assortment of indicators from the previous month. Respondents also give their views about the likely direction of these same indicators six months ahead. The consensus estimate is that there will be an increase from 6.56 to 10. What it means to you: The Empire Manufacturing Survey gives a detailed look at New York State’s manufacturing sector, how busy it is and where things are headed. Since manufacturing is a major sector of the economy, this report has a big influence on the markets. Some of the Empire State Survey sub-indexes also provide insight on commodity prices and other clues on inflation.

Business Inventories: Business inventories are the dollar amount of inventories held by manufacturers, wholesalers, and retailers. The level of inventories in relation to sales is an important indicator of the near-term direction of production activity. The consensus estimate is for a decrease from last month’s .6 to .4. This will still leave inventories historically low.  What it means to you:  Rising inventories can be an indication of business optimism that sales will be growing in the coming months. By looking at the ratio of inventories to sales, investors can see whether production demands will expand or contract in the near future. For example, if inventory growth lags sales growth, then manufacturers will have to boost production lest commodity shortages occur. On the other hand, if unintended inventory accumulation occurs (that is, sales do not meet expectations), then production will probably have to slow while those inventories are worked down.

Housing Market Index: The National Association of Home Builders produces a housing market index based on a survey in which respondents from this organization are asked to rate the general economy and housing market conditions. The housing market index is a weighted average of separate diffusion indexes: present sales of new homes, sale of new homes expected in the next six months, and traffic of prospective buyers in new homes. What it means to you: This report provides a gauge of not only the demand for housing, but the economic momentum. People have to be feeling pretty comfortable and confident in their own financial position to buy a house. Furthermore, this narrow piece of data has a powerful multiplier effect through the economy, and therefore across the markets and your investments.

ICSC Goldman Store Sales:  This weekly measure of comparable store sales at major retail chains, published by the International Council of Shopping Centers, is related to the general merchandise portion of retail sales. It accounts for roughly 10 percent of total retail sales. What it means to you: Consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of the economy, so if you know what consumers are up to, you’ll have a pretty good handle on where the economy is headed.

Redbook: A weekly measure of sales at chain stores, discounters, and department stores. It is a less consistent indicator of retail sales than the weekly ICSC index. What it means to you: The pattern in consumer spending is often the foremost influence on stock and bond markets.

Wednesday:

Housing Starts: A housing start is registered at the start of construction of a new building intended primarily as a residential building. The start of construction is defined as the beginning of excavation of the foundation for the building. The consensus estimate is for an increase from .654 million annualized units to .690 million units. What it means to you: The housing starts report is the most closely followed report on the housing sector. Housing starts reflect the commitment of builders to new construction activity. The level as well as changes in housing starts reveals residential construction trends. Housing starts are subject to substantial monthly volatility, especially during winter months. It takes several months to establish a trend. Thus, it is useful to look at a 5-month moving average (centered) of housing starts.

Industrial Production: The index of industrial production is available nationally by market and industry groupings. The major groupings are comprised of final products (such as consumer goods, business equipment and construction supplies), intermediate products and materials. The industry groupings are manufacturing (further subdivided into durable and nondurable goods), mining and utilities. The capacity utilization rate — reflecting the resource utilization of the nation’s output facilities — is available for the same market and industry groupings. The consensus estimate is for an increase from last month’s 0% to an increase of .5% in the month over month.  What it means to you: Industrial production and capacity utilization indicate not only trends in the manufacturing sector, but also whether resource utilization is strained enough to forebode inflation. Also, industrial production is an important measure of current output for the economy and helps to define turning points in the business cycle (start of recession and start of recovery).

FOMC Minutes: The Federal Open Market Committee issues minutes of its meetings with a lag. The minutes of the previous meeting are reported three weeks after the meeting.  What it means to you: Investors who want a more detailed description of Fed opinions will generally read the minutes closely. However, the Fed discloses its official view at the end of each FOMC meeting with a public statement. Fed officials make numerous speeches, which freely give their views to the public at large.

James Bullard (St. Louis Federal Reserve President) Speaks

EIA Petroleum Report: The Energy Information Administration (EIA) provides weekly information on petroleum inventories in the U.S. The level of inventories helps determine prices for petroleum products. What it means to you: Petroleum product prices are determined by supply and demand – just like any other good and service. During periods of strong economic growth, one would expect demand to be robust. If inventories are low, this will lead to increases in crude oil prices – or price increases for a wide variety of petroleum products such as gasoline or heating oil.

Thursday:

Philadelphia Fed Survey: The general conditions index from this business outlook survey is a diffusion index of manufacturing conditions within the Philadelphia Federal Reserve district. This survey, widely followed as an indicator of manufacturing sector trends, is correlated with the ISM manufacturing index and the index of industrial production. The consensus estimate is for an increase from 8.5 to 10. What it means to you: By tracking economic data such as the Philly Fed survey, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for the various markets. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers more moderate growth so that it won’t lead to inflation. The Philly Fed survey gives a detailed look at the manufacturing sector, how busy it is and where things are headed.

Leading Indicators: A composite index of ten economic indicators that should lead overall economic activity. This indicator was initially compiled by the Commerce Department but is now compiled and produced by The Conference Board. It has been revised many times in the past 30 years – particularly when it has not done a good job of predicting turning points. The consensus estimate is for a decrease from last month’s .3 to .1.  What it means to you: By tracking economic data such as the index of leading indicators, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for the various markets. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers less rapid growth and is extremely sensitive to whether the economy is growing too quickly-and causing potential inflationary pressures. The index of leading indicators is designed to predict turning points in the economy — such as recessions and recoveries.

Money Supply

Weekly Jobless Claims: New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smoothes out weekly volatility. The consensus estimate is for a decrease from 367,000 to 365,000. What it means to you: By tracking the number of jobless claims, investors can gain a sense of how tight, or how loose, the job market is. If wage inflation threatens, it’s a good bet that interest rates will rise.

Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index: A weekly, random-sample survey tracking Americans’ views on the condition of the U.S. economy, their personal finances and the buying climate. What it means to you: The pattern in consumer attitudes can be a key influence on stock and bond markets. Consumer spending drives two-thirds of the economy and if the consumer is not confident, the consumer will not be willing to spend. Confidence impacts consumer spending which affects economic growth.

Friday:

No Reports

Hello, and welcome to Real Estate Reality Radio. The most important hour of radio every Friday from 9 to 10 on WBCB 1490 am. Thank you for joining Vince and me. For those of you who are not familiar with the show I am the guy with a bow tie and a bit of an attitude and Vince is the fun affable best friend. Our show is dedicated to dispelling the myths associated with Real Estate and finance in your marketplace.

Within every market there are obstacles and solutions on the path to tremendous opportunities. Vince and I think most people are looking for practical advice. Please feel free to call 215-740-8999 or visit peterbuchsbaum.com.

Please join us live on the web at www.wbcb1490.com from 9:00am to 10:00 am every Friday.

So last week we discussed “Short Sales” with Brian Meara. This week was full of great current events: Fannie Mae does NOT need more bailout funds. Remarkably Fannie Mae made money in the first quarter of the year and they will actually be able to pay back some of the $116 billion they borrowed. That is a far cry from the $6.5 billion they lost the same quarter a year ago. So far they have paid back $23 billion of the $116 billion they owe. Some Housing Markets are looking at double digit price gains. According to the National Association of Realtors the national median home price declined by just .4% in the first quarter compared with the same period last year. According to Fiserv (a financial analytics company) home prices should start to rebound an average of 4% over the next 5 years. The New Consumer Protection Bureau is targeting predatory lending. They are working on new rules that will focus on points and fees and “transparency”. I thought the last change (for the worse mind you) was also for transparency.  A new report shows that price declines may be ending. Fiserv which tracks Philadelphia prices quarterly showed the regions prices fell 5.79 percent in the 12 months ending December 31, 2011 (their most recent data). Fiserv believes after years of large decline the market is showing signs of “stabilization”.

Today we have the opportunity to spend an hour with James and Lauren Cronmiller of Keller Williams to discuss some of this week’s hot topics. James and Lauren are a father daughter team that work together and separately.  I wanted to discuss an article I saw on CNBC Money finding the right agent. Some of the questions the article brought up were different than any questions I would ask.

Please join us live at www.wbcb1490.com for the open discussion with James and Lauren.

Each week we discuss the myths of the mortgage market. It is not about rate. A higher rate with no mortgage insurance may provide a lower payment.

Market Focus: Europe, Producer Price Index, Consumer Sentiment and lots of Fed Speak. Elections in France and Greece should hold the edge with a thin economic calendar.

Monday:

Consumer Credit: The dollar value of consumer installment credit outstanding. Changes in consumer credit indicate the state of consumer finances and portend future spending patterns. The consensus estimate is for an increase from 8.7 billion to 9.8 billion. What it means to you: Growth in consumer credit can hold positive or negative implications for the economy and markets. Economic activity is stimulated when consumers borrow within their means to buy cars and other major purchases. On the other hand, if consumers pile up too much debt relative to their income levels, they may have to stop spending on new goods and services just to pay off old debts. That could put a big dent in economic growth.

Jeffrey Lacker (Richmond Federal Reserve President) Speaks

Tuesday:

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index:  The index is a composite of ten seasonally adjusted components based on questions on the following: plans to increase employment, plans to make capital outlays, plans to increase inventories, expect economy to improve, expect real sales higher, current inventory, current job opening, expected credit conditions, now a good time to expand, and earnings trend. The Consensus Estimate is for a slight rise from 92.5 to 93 for a possibly fifth straight increase. What it means to you: Small businesses are responsible for a majority of new job creation and the NFIB focuses on this sector of the economy. The direction of the health of small businesses can portend changes in the stock market.

ICSC Goldman Store Sales:  This weekly measure of comparable store sales at major retail chains, published by the International Council of Shopping Centers, is related to the general merchandise portion of retail sales. It accounts for roughly 10 percent of total retail sales. What it means to you: Consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of the economy, so if you know what consumers are up to, you’ll have a pretty good handle on where the economy is headed.

Redbook: A weekly measure of sales at chain stores, discounters, and department stores. It is a less consistent indicator of retail sales than the weekly ICSC index. What it means to you: The pattern in consumer spending is often the foremost influence on stock and bond markets.

3 Year Note Auction

Jeffrey Lacker (Richmond Federal Reserve President) Speaks

Richard Fisher (Dallas Federal Reserve President) Speaks

Wednesday:

Wholesale Trade: Wholesale trade measures the dollar value of sales made and inventories held by merchant wholesalers. It is a component of business sales and inventories. The consensus estimate is for a decrease in inventories from .9 to .6. What it means to you: Investors need to monitor the economy closely because it usually dictates how various types of investments will perform. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers a slower rate of growth that won’t lead to inflationary pressures. Wholesale sales and inventory data give investors a chance to look below the surface of the visible consumer economy.  

EIA Petroleum Report: The Energy Information Administration (EIA) provides weekly information on petroleum inventories in the U.S. The level of inventories helps determine prices for petroleum products. What it means to you: Petroleum product prices are determined by supply and demand – just like any other good and service. During periods of strong economic growth, one would expect demand to be robust. If inventories are low, this will lead to increases in crude oil prices – or price increases for a wide variety of petroleum products such as gasoline or heating oil.

10 Year Note Auction

Sandra Pianalto (Cleveland Federal Reserve President) Speaks

Charles Plosser (Philadelphia Federal Reserve President) Speaks

Thursday:

International Trade: International trade is composed of merchandise (tangible goods) and services. It is available nationally by export, import and trade balance. Detailed information is reported on oil and motor vehicle imports. Services trade is available by export, import and trade balance for seven principal end-use categories. The consensus estimate is for -49.5 after last month’s -46. What it means to you: The international trade balance on goods and services is the major indicator for foreign trade. While the trade balance (deficit) is small relative to the size of the economy (although it has increased over the years), changes in the trade balance can be quite substantial relative to changes in economic output from one quarter to the next. Measured separately, inflation-adjusted imports and exports are important components of aggregate economic activity, representing approximately 17 and 12 percent of real GDP.

Weekly Jobless Claims: New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smoothes out weekly volatility. The consensus estimate is for an increase from 365,000 to 366,000. What it means to you: By tracking the number of jobless claims, investors can gain a sense of how tight, or how loose, the job market is. If wage inflation threatens, it’s a good bet that interest rates will rise.

Import and Export Prices: Import price indexes are compiled for the prices of goods that are bought in the United States but produced abroad and export price indexes are developed for the prices of goods sold abroad but produced domestically. These prices indicate inflationary trends in internationally traded products.  The consensus estimate is for a significant decrease to .2 from last month’s .8. What it means to you: Changes in import and export prices are a valuable gauge of inflation here and abroad. Furthermore, the data can directly impact the financial markets such as bonds and the dollar.

Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index: A weekly, random-sample survey tracking Americans’ views on the condition of the U.S. economy, their personal finances and the buying climate. What it means to you: The pattern in consumer attitudes can be a key influence on stock and bond markets. Consumer spending drives two-thirds of the economy and if the consumer is not confident, the consumer will not be willing to spend. Confidence impacts consumer spending which affects economic growth.

Ben Bernanke (Federal Reserve Chief) Speaks

Naryana Kocherlakota (Minneapolis Federal Reserve President) Speaks

30 Year Bond Auction

Money Supply

Friday:

Producer Price Index: The Producer Price Index (PPI) is a measure of the average price level for a fixed basket of capital and consumer goods received by producers. The consensus estimate is for a 0% gain in the overall number and a .2% gain in the core rate. The overall number remaining the same as last month.  What it means to you:  Changes in the producer price index for finished goods are considered a precursor of consumer price inflation. If the prices that manufacturers pay for their raw materials rise, they would have to raise the prices that consumers pay for their finished goods in order to not decrease profit margins. Changes in the supply and demand for labor will affect wage changes with a delay because wages are institutionalized and contractual. However, commodity prices react more quickly to changes in supply and demand.

Consumer Sentiment: The University of Michigan’s Consumer Survey Center questions 500 households each month on their financial conditions and attitudes about the economy. Consumer sentiment is directly related to the strength of consumer spending. Consumer confidence and consumer sentiment are two ways of talking about consumer attitudes. The consensus estimate is for a small  decrease to 76.4 from 76.2. What it means to you:  Consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of the economy, so the markets are always dying to know what consumers are up to and how they might behave in the near future. The more confident consumers are about the economy and their own personal finances, the more likely they are to spend. With this in mind, it’s easy to see how this index of consumer attitudes gives insight to the direction of the economy.

Richard Fisher (Dallas Federal Reserve President) Speaks

Hello, and welcome to Real Estate Reality Radio. The most important hour of radio every Friday from 9 to 10 on WBCB 1490 am. Thank you for joining Vince and me. For those of you who are not familiar with the show I am the guy with a bow tie and a bit of an attitude and Vince is the fun affable best friend. Our show is dedicated to dispelling the myths associated with Real Estate and finance in your marketplace.

Within every market there are obstacles and solutions on the path to tremendous opportunities. Vince and I think most people are looking for practical advice. Please feel free to call 215-740-8999 or visit peterbuchsbaum.com.

Please join us live on the web at www.wbcb1490.com from 9:00am to 10:00 am every Friday.

So last week we discussed “Short Sales” with Brian Meara. This week was full of great current events: Homeownership Falls to the Lowest Rate since 1997. The percentage of Americans who own homes dropped tp 65.4 % over the past 12 months. That’s down from a peak of 69.2% in 2004. Meadian prices also continued to fall throughout the first quarter according to the census. All this while Mortgage Rates hit New All Time Lows. The 30 year loan averages 3.84 down from 3.87. Not exactly a giant drop. The historically low rates (below 4% for all of 2012) have done very little to boost sales. It is widely belived that Buying a Home will not get much Cheaper. With home prices down nationally 34% since 2006 and rates at or below 4% housing affordability has never been better. Many feel that it will not stay this way for much longer. And finally New Short Sale Rules set for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Effective June 15^th the Federal Housing Finance Agency has proposed that servicers must review and respond to potential buyers within 30 days of receipt of an offer. Remember that in 2009 the Treasury tried to incent servicers to close short sakes by paying a $1,000 bonus to close loans. Seriously a whole $1,000. These new and improved lending guidelines mandate that if the servicer does not respond after 30 days then they must give weekly status reports for another 30 days. With this let us re-introduce to you again Brian Meara a leading short sale specialist.

Today we have the opportunity to spend another hour with Brian to discuss several items. How does foreclosure impact your credit and is a “Short Sale” better? Is Giving the bank Deed-In-Lieu a better idea? And my all-time favorite the incompetency of the banks.

Please join us live at www.wbcb1490.com for the open discussion with Brian Meara..

Each week we discuss the myths of the mortgage market. It is not about rate. A higher rate with no mortgage insurance may provide a lower payment.

Market Focus: This week’s release of a slew of economic data including the U.S. labor market coincides with the beginning of the latter half of corporate earnings. This will be keenly watched to see if they are enough to allow stocks to break above the recent trading range. Watch for any surprises.

Monday:

Personal Income and Outlays:  Personal income is the dollar value of income received from all sources by individuals. Personal outlays include consumer purchases of durable and nondurable goods, and services. The consensus estimate is for personal income to have risen .3% month over month (was up .2 last month). Consumer spending to be up .4 month over month (half last month’s .8%). The core PCE index to be up .2% month over month (was up last month .1%).   What it means to you: The income and outlays data are another handy way to gauge the strength of the consumer sector in this economy and where it is headed. Income gives households the power to spend and/or save. Spending greases the wheels of the economy and keeps it growing. Savings are often invested in the financial markets and can drive up the prices of stocks and bonds. Even if savings simply go into a bank account, part of those funds typically is used by the bank for lending and therefore contributes to economic activity. Income is the major determinant of spending — U.S. consumers spend roughly 95 cents of each new dollar. Consumer spending accounts directly for more than two-thirds of overall economic activity and indirectly influences capital spending, inventory investment and imports.

Chicago PMI: Manufacturing and non-manufacturing firms are both surveyed. Hence, it is not directly comparable to pure manufacturing surveys. Readings above 50 percent indicate an expanding business sector. The consensus estimate is for a decrease from 62.2 to 60.8.  What it means to you: The Chicago PMI gives a detailed look at the Chicago region’s manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors. Many market players don’t realize that non-manufacturing activity is covered in this index and tend to focus on the manufacturing side only. On its own, it can be viewed as a regional indicator of general business activity.

Dallas Fed MFG Survey: The Dallas Fed conducts this monthly survey of manufacturers in Texas regarding their operations in the state. Participants from across the state represent a variety of industries. Participants are asked whether various indicators have increased, decreased or remained unchanged. Answers cover changes over the previous month and expectations for activity six months into the future. The breakeven point for each index is zero with positive numbers indicating growth and negative numbers reflecting decline. What it means to you: By tracking economic data such as the Dallas Fed survey, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for the various markets. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers more moderate growth so that it won’t lead to inflation. The Dallas Fed survey gives a detailed look at the manufacturing sector, how busy it is and where things are headed.

Tuesday:

Motor Vehicle Sales: Unit sales of domestically produced cars and light duty trucks (including sport utility vehicles and mini-vans). Motor vehicle sales are good indicators of trends in consumer spending. The consensus estimate is for an increase from 10.9 million units to 11 million units. What it means to you: Since motor vehicle sales are an important element of consumer spending, market players watch this closely to get a handle on the direction of the economy. The pattern of consumption spending is one of the foremost influences on stock and bond markets. In a more specific sense, auto and truck sales show market conditions for auto makers and the slew of auto-related companies. Given that most consumers borrow money to buy cars or trucks, sales also reflect confidence in current and future economic conditions.

ISM Mfg Index: The Institute for Supply Management surveys more than 300 manufacturing firms on employment, production, new orders, supplier deliveries, and inventories. Readings above (below) 50 percent indicate an expanding (contracting) factory sector. Export orders, import orders, backlog orders and prices paid for raw and unfinished materials are also measured, but these are not included in the overall index. The consensus estimate is for a slight decrease from 53.4% to 53.0%. What it means to you: The ISM manufacturing composite index indicates overall factory sector trends. The relevance of this indicator is enhanced by the fact that it is available very early in the month and not subject to revision. The ISM manufacturing data give a detailed look at the manufacturing sector, how busy it is and where things are headed. Since the manufacturing sector is a major source of cyclical variability in the economy, this report has a big influence on the markets. More than one of the ISM sub-indexes provides insight on commodity prices and clues regarding the potential for developing inflation.

Construction Spending: The dollar value of new construction activity on residential, non-residential, and public projects. Data are available in nominal and real (inflation-adjusted) dollars. The consensus estimate is for .5% an increase from last months -1.1% increase. What it means to you: Construction spending has a direct bearing on stocks, bonds and commodities because it is a part of the economy that is affected by interest rates, business cash flow and even federal fiscal policy. Businesses only put money into the construction of new factories or offices when they are confident that demand is strong enough to justify the expansion. The same goes for individuals making the investment in a home.

ICSC Goldman Store Sales:  This weekly measure of comparable store sales at major retail chains, published by the International Council of Shopping Centers, is related to the general merchandise portion of retail sales. It accounts for roughly 10 percent of total retail sales. What it means to you: Consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of the economy, so if you know what consumers are up to, you’ll have a pretty good handle on where the economy is headed.

Redbook: A weekly measure of sales at chain stores, discounters, and department stores. It is a less consistent indicator of retail sales than the weekly ICSC index. What it means to you: The pattern in consumer spending is often the foremost influence on stock and bond markets.

Wednesday:

Challenger Job Cut Report: This monthly report counts and categorizes announcements of corporate layoffs based on mass layoff data from state departments of labor. The job-cut report must be analyzed with caution. It doesn’t distinguish between layoffs scheduled for the short-term or the long term, or whether job cuts are handled through attrition or actual layoffs. Also, the job-cut report does not include jobs eliminated in small batches over a longer time period. What it means to you: The job-cut report is basically a rehash of the weekly jobless claims report but provides additional insight into where layoffs are occurring. There is industry and geographic (states) detail that is not available with weekly jobless claims.

ADP: The ADP national employment report is computed from a subset of ADP records that in the last six months of 2008, represented approximately 400,000 U.S. business clients and approximately 24 million U.S. employees working in all private industrial sectors. What it means to you: The employment statistics also provide insight on wage trends, and wage inflation is high on the list of enemies for the Federal Reserve. Fed officials constantly monitor this data watching for even the smallest signs of potential inflationary pressures, even when economic conditions are soggy. If inflation is under control, it is easier for the Fed to maintain a more accommodative monetary policy. If inflation is a problem, the Fed is limited in providing economic stimulus.

Factory Orders: Factory orders represent the dollar level of new orders for both durable and nondurable goods. This report gives more complete information than the advance durable goods report which is released one or two weeks earlier in the month. The consensus estimate is for a decrease from last month’s 1.3 to -1.6%. What it means to you: The orders data show how busy factories will be in coming months as manufacturers work to fill those orders. This report provides insight to the demand for not only hard goods such as refrigerators and cars, but nondurables such as cigarettes and apparel. In addition to new orders, analysts monitor unfilled orders, an indicator of the backlog in production. Shipments reveal current sales. Inventories give a handle on the strength of current and future production.

EIA Petroleum Report: The Energy Information Administration (EIA) provides weekly information on petroleum inventories in the U.S. The level of inventories helps determine prices for petroleum products. What it means to you: Petroleum product prices are determined by supply and demand – just like any other good and service. During periods of strong economic growth, one would expect demand to be robust. If inventories are low, this will lead to increases in crude oil prices – or price increases for a wide variety of petroleum products such as gasoline or heating oil.

Thursday:

Chain Store: Monthly sales volumes from individual department, chain, discount, and apparel stores are usually reported on the first Thursday of each month. Chain store sales correspond with roughly 10 percent of retail sales. Chain store sales are an indicator of retail sales and consumer spending trends. What it means to you: Just a few words of caution. Sales are reported as a change from the same month, a year ago. It is important to know how strong sales actually were a year ago to make sense of this year’s sales. In addition, sales are usually reported for “comparable stores” in case of company mergers. Chain store sales not only give you a sense of the big picture, but also the trends among individual retailers and different store categories. Perhaps the discount chains such as Target and Wal-Mart are doing well, but the high-end department stores such as Tiffany’s are lagging. Maybe apparel specialty retailers are showing exceptional growth.

ISM Non Mfg Report: The non-manufacturing ISM surveys nearly 400 firms from 60 sectors across the United States, including agriculture, mining, construction, transportation, communications, wholesale trade and retail trade. The consensus estimate is for a the same as last month’s reading of 56. What it means to you: The non-manufacturing composite index has four equally weighted components: business activity, new orders, employment, and supplier deliveries. The ISM did not begin publishing the composite index until the release for January 2008. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers less rapid growth and is extremely sensitive to whether the economy is growing too quickly-and causing potential inflationary pressures.

Productivity and Costs: Productivity measures the growth of labor efficiency in producing the economy’s goods and services. Unit labor costs reflect the labor costs of producing each unit of output. Both are followed as indicators of future inflationary trends. The consensus is for a -.4% increase in Productivity  (a decrease from last month’s .9% and an increase of 2.5% in Unit Labor Costs. Slightly less than last months 2.8%. What it means to you:  Productivity growth is critical because it allows for higher wages and faster economic growth without inflationary consequences. In periods of robust economic growth, productivity ensures that inflation will remain well behaved despite tight labor markets. Productivity growth is also a key factor in helping to increase the overall wealth of an economy since real wage gains can be made when workers are more productive per hour.

Weekly Jobless Claims: New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smoothes out weekly volatility. The consensus estimate is for a decrease from 388,000 to 378,000. What it means to you: By tracking the number of jobless claims, investors can gain a sense of how tight, or how loose, the job market is. If wage inflation threatens, it’s a good bet that interest rates will rise.

Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index: A weekly, random-sample survey tracking Americans’ views on the condition of the U.S. economy, their personal finances and the buying climate. What it means to you: The pattern in consumer attitudes can be a key influence on stock and bond markets. Consumer spending drives two-thirds of the economy and if the consumer is not confident, the consumer will not be willing to spend. Confidence impacts consumer spending which affects economic growth.

Money Supply

Friday:

Monster Employment: The Monster Employment Index is a comprehensive monthly analysis of U.S. online job demand. It is conducted by Monster Worldwide, Inc. and is based on a real-time review of a large, representative selection of career sites and job boards, including Monster,” according to Monster Worldwide. The Index presents a snapshot of employer online recruitment activity nationwide. What it means to you: When the employment index measuring job availability is falling, this bodes well for the bond market because it implies a drop in labor demand and perhaps an economic downturn. While the Fed worries about inflation, they also are concerned about rising unemployment. A rising jobless rate can mean a more accommodative monetary policy.

Employment Situation: The employment situation is a set of labor market indicators based on two separate surveys in this one report. Based on the Household Survey, the unemployment rate measures the number of unemployed as a percentage of the labor force. The average workweek reflects the number of hours worked in the nonfarm sector. Average hourly earnings reveal the basic hourly rate for major industries as indicated in nonfarm payrolls. The consensus estimate is for an increase from last month’s 120,000 to 165,000, the rate to remain the same at 8.2%, and average hourly earnings to remain the same at 34.5%. What it means to you:  The employment situation is the primary monthly indicator of aggregate economic activity because it encompasses all major sectors of the economy. It is comprehensive and available early in the month. Many other economic indicators are dependent upon its information. It not only reveals information about the labor market, but about income and production as well. In short, it provides clues about other economic indicators reported for the month and plays a big role in influencing financial market psychology during the month.

Hello, and welcome to Real Estate Reality Radio. The most important hour of radio every Friday from 9 to 10 on WBCB 1490 am. Thank you for joining Vince and me. For those of you who are not familiar with the show I am the guy with a bow tie and a bit of an attitude and Vince is the fun affable best friend. Our show is dedicated to dispelling the myths associated with Real Estate and finance in your marketplace.

Within every market there are obstacles and solutions on the path to tremendous opportunities. Vince and I think most people are looking for practical advice. Please feel free to call 215-740-8999 or visit peterbuchsbaum.com.

Please join us live on the web at www.wbcb1490.com from 9:00am to 10:00 am every Friday.

So last week we discussed real estate tax appeals with Alison Tulio with Midlantic Tax Solutions.  This week was full of great current events: Home Prices hit new Post Bubble Lows . The main challenge for housing continues to be foreclosures and other distressed property sales, according to Pat Newport, an analyst for IHS Global Insight. Sheila Bair begs the question; Is the Fed Feeding a new Bubble? Sooner or later, the bond bubble will burst. History has shown that a structurally weak economy combined with a fiscally irresponsible government propped up by accommodative central-bank lending always ends badly. Absent a change in policies, a toxic brew of volatile interest rates and uncontrollable inflation could define our future. Brian Meara of Bormio Properties is a leading short sale specialist that is made up of two divisions. One sector works with homeowners of properties in pre-foreclosure and/or with their real estate agent. The other sector specializes in the sale of properties in pre-foreclosure. We work with homes that meet our criteria, regardless of their value or location. We will also acquire properties that we have determined to be an attractive acquisition for investors or buyers looking for a primary residence.

Today we have the opportunity to spend an hour with Brian to learn more about how he assists real estate agents and potential home buyers navigate the “short sale” market. Bormio Properties assists homeowners by negotiating down the liens that have been placed on their home. We work with home owners who owe more than their home is worth in their particular real estate market. In parallel, we assist in locating a buyer for their property. It creates a win-win situation for both parties by presenting the homeowner an option before their property is foreclosed upon, and by achieving the criteria of the buyer.

They work with Realtors to facilitate the process by taking away the work of dealing with lenders. They help to put their clients’ best interests first while at the same time increasing their commission on each deal.

Please join us live at www.wbcb1490.com for the open discussion with Alison Tulio.

Each week we discuss the myths of the mortgage market. It is not about rate. A higher rate with no mortgage insurance may provide a lower payment.

Market Focus: Dare I say it again but Europe is center stage again as earning season hits its stride. While the growth has been steady it has also been unimpressive. This week should be a push and pull between earnings and jitters over Europe.

Monday:

No Reports

Tuesday:

The FOMC Meeting begins: The Federal Open Market Committee meets eight times a year in order to determine the near-term direction of monetary policy. For monetary policy, the FOMC evaluates the relative concerns over the outlook for economic growth (too strong, too weak, about right) and pending inflation (too high, too low, about right). The FOMC then determines whether short-term interest rates should be raised, lowered, or left unchanged to accomplish its objectives of healthy economic growth and low inflation. The FOMC consists of the seven Governors of the Federal Reserve Board (assuming no seats are vacant) and five Federal Reserve Bank presidents. What it means to you: The interest rate set by the Fed, the federal funds rate, serves as a benchmark for all other rates. A change in the fed funds rate, the lending rate banks charge each other for the use of overnight funds, translates directly through to all other interest rates from Treasury bonds to mortgage loans. It also changes the dynamics of competition for investor dollars.

S & P Case-Schiller: The S&P/Case-Shiller home price index tracks monthly changes in the value of residential real estate in 20 metropolitan regions across the U.S. The composite indexes and the regional indexes are seen by the markets as measuring changes in existing home prices and are based on single-family home re-sales. The indexes are based on single-family dwellings with two or more sales transactions. Condominiums and co-ops are excluded as is new construction. What it means to you:  Home values affect much in the economy – especially the housing and consumer sectors. Periods of rising home values encourage new construction while periods of soft home prices can damp housing starts. Changes in home values play key roles in consumer spending and in consumer financial health. Many economists believe that the U.S. economy and especially the depressed housing sector will not recover until home prices firm back up. This makes watching home prices all the more important for the investor.

New Home Sales: New home sales measure the number of newly constructed homes with a committed sale during the month. The consensus estimate is for 318,000 slightly more than last month’s anemic 313,000 What it means to you: This provides a gauge of not only the demand for housing, but the economic momentum. By tracking economic data such as new home sales, investors can gain specific investment ideas as well as broad guidance for managing a portfolio.

FHFA House Price Index: The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index (HPI) covers single-family housing, using data provided by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The House Price Index is derived from transactions involving conforming conventional mortgages purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. The consensus estimate is for a slight increase from last month’s 0% to .1%.What it means to you: Home values affect much in the economy — especially the housing and consumer sectors. Periods of rising home values encourage new construction while periods of soft home prices can damp housing starts. Changes in home values play key roles in consumer spending and in consumer financial health.

Consumer Confidence: The Conference Board compiles a survey of consumer attitudes on present economic conditions and expectations of future conditions. Three thousand households across the country are surveyed each month. The consensus estimate is for a decrease from 70.2 to 69.7. What it means to you: Consumer spending drives two-thirds of the economy and if the consumer is not confident, the consumer will not be willing to pull out the big bucks. Confidence impacts consumer spending which affects economic growth.

Richmond Fed MFG Index: This survey provides a comprehensive set of indicators of business conditions within the fifth region’s manufacturing sector. The survey provides participants’ knowledge of recent changes in manufacturing activity as well as insights into expected developments in six months. The data are released the fourth Tuesday of each month. The headline index is the composite for current month activity. It is a weighted average of the shipments. . What it means to you: By tracking economic data such as the Richman Fed index, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for the various markets. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers more moderate growth so that it won’t lead to inflation. The Richmond Fed index gives a detailed look at the manufacturing sector, how busy it is and where things are headed.

State Street Investor Confidence: The State Street Investor Confidence Index measures confidence by looking at actual levels of risk in investment portfolios. This is not an attitude survey. The State Street Investor Confidence Index measures confidence directly by assessing the changes in investor holdings of equities. The more of their portfolio that institutional investors are willing to invest in equities, the greater their confidence.   What it means to you: “State Street believes direct measurement, rather than a survey of portfolio managers who often don’t have time to fill out monthly questionnaires, is a more reliable approach to consumer confidence. The investor confidence index is compiled with techniques based on modern portfolio theory. According to State Street, “the more of their portfolios that professional investors are willing to devote to riskier as opposed to safer investments, the greater their risk appetite or confidence.”

ICSC Goldman Store Sales:  This weekly measure of comparable store sales at major retail chains, published by the International Council of Shopping Centers, is related to the general merchandise portion of retail sales. It accounts for roughly 10 percent of total retail sales. What it means to you: Consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of the economy, so if you know what consumers are up to, you’ll have a pretty good handle on where the economy is headed.

Redbook: A weekly measure of sales at chain stores, discounters, and department stores. It is a less consistent indicator of retail sales than the weekly ICSC index. What it means to you: The pattern in consumer spending is often the foremost influence on stock and bond markets.

2 Year Note Auction

Wednesday:

Durable Goods: Durable goods orders reflect the new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for immediate and future delivery of factory hard goods. The first release, the advance, provides an early estimate of durable goods orders. About two weeks later, more complete and revised data are available in the factory orders report. The data for the previous month are usually revised a second time upon the release of the new month’s data. The Consensus Estimate is for a decrease from last month’s 2.2% to a -1.5%.  Excluding autos it was down from 1.6 to .4. What it means to you: Durable goods orders tell investors what to expect from the manufacturing sector, a major component of the economy, and therefore a major influence on their investments. Orders for durable goods show how busy factories will be in the months to come, as manufacturers work to fill those orders. The data not only provide insight to demand for items such as refrigerators and cars, but also business investment such as industrial machinery, electrical machinery and computers. If companies commit to spending more on equipment and other capital, they are obviously experiencing sustainable growth in their business. Increased expenditures on investment goods set the stage for greater productive capacity in the country and reduce the prospects for inflation.

FOMC Announcement: The FOMC also determines whether the Fed should add or subtract liquidity in credit markets separately from that related to changes in the fed funds rate. The Fed announces its policy decision (typically whether to change the fed funds target rate) at the end of each FOMC meeting. The consensus estimate is for the Federal Funds Rate to remain the same. What it means to you: Interest rate costs are a significant factor for many businesses, particularly for companies with high debt loads or who have to finance high inventory levels. This interest cost has a direct impact on corporate profits. The bottom line is that higher interest rates are bearish for the stock market, while lower interest rates are bullish.

EIA Petroleum Report: The Energy Information Administration (EIA) provides weekly information on petroleum inventories in the U.S. The level of inventories helps determine prices for petroleum products. What it means to you: Petroleum product prices are determined by supply and demand – just like any other good and service. During periods of strong economic growth, one would expect demand to be robust. If inventories are low, this will lead to increases in crude oil prices – or price increases for a wide variety of petroleum products such as gasoline or heating oil.

5 Year Note Auction

Federal Reserve Chairman Press Conference

Thursday:

Weekly Jobless Claims: New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smoothes out weekly volatility. The consensus estimate is for a decrease from 386,000 to 375,000. What it means to you: By tracking the number of jobless claims, investors can gain a sense of how tight, or how loose, the job market is. If wage inflation threatens, it’s a good bet that interest rates will rise.

Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index: A weekly, random-sample survey tracking Americans’ views on the condition of the U.S. economy, their personal finances and the buying climate. What it means to you: The pattern in consumer attitudes can be a key influence on stock and bond markets. Consumer spending drives two-thirds of the economy and if the consumer is not confident, the consumer will not be willing to spend. Confidence impacts consumer spending which affects economic growth.

Chicago Fed. National Activity Index: The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is a monthly index designed to better gauge overall economic activity and inflationary pressure. The 85 economic indicators that are included in the CFNAI are drawn from four broad categories of data: production and income; employment, unemployment, and hours; personal consumption and housing; and sales, orders, and inventories. Each of these data series measures some aspect of overall macroeconomic activity. The derived index provides a single, summary measure of a factor common to these national economic data. What it means to you: This index is unique among regional Federal Reserve Bank indexes in that it is national in scope. Investors are eager to have insight into economic growth and inflation.

Pending Home Sales Index: The National Association of Realtors developed the pending home sales index as a leading indicator of housing activity. As such, it is a leading indicator of existing home sales, not new home sales. A pending sale is one in which a contract was signed, but not yet closed.  The consensus estimate is for a increase of 1 after last month’s -.5% increase. What it means to you: This provides a gauge of not only the demand for housing, but the economic momentum. People have to be feeling pretty comfortable and confident in their own financial position to buy a house. Furthermore, this narrow piece of data has a powerful multiplier effect through the economy.

Kansas City Fed MFG Index: The monthly Survey of Manufacturers provides information on current manufacturing activity in the Tenth District. The accumulated results also help trace longer term trends. The survey monitors manufacturing plants selected according to geographic distribution, industry mix, and size. Survey results reveal changes in several indicators of manufacturing activity, including production and shipments, and identify changes in prices of raw materials and finished products. Answers cover changes over the previous month, changes over the past twelve months, and expectations for activity six months into the future. The breakeven point for each index is zero with positive numbers indicating growth and negative numbers reflecting decline. What it means to you: Investors track economic data like the Kansas City Survey of Manufacturers to understand the economic backdrop for the various markets. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers a moderate growth environment that will not generate inflationary pressures. The survey gives a detailed look at Tenth District’s manufacturing sector, how busy it is and where it is headed.

7 Year Note Auction

Money Supply

Friday:

GDP: Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the broadest measure of aggregate economic activity and encompasses every sector of the economy. The consensus Estimate is for  2.5% slightly less than last month’s 3%. The price component is expected to increase  from .9% to 2.1%. What it means to you: Gross domestic product is the country’s most comprehensive economic scorecard. GDP is the all-inclusive measure of economic activity. The GDP report contains a treasure-trove of information which not only paints an image of the overall economy, but tells investors about important trends within the big picture. GDP components such as consumer spending, business and residential investment, and price (inflation) indexes illuminate the economy’s undercurrents, which can translate to investment opportunities and guidance in managing a portfolio.

Consumer Sentiment: The University of Michigan’s Consumer Survey Center questions 500 households each month on their financial conditions and attitudes about the economy. Consumer sentiment is directly related to the strength of consumer spending. Consumer confidence and consumer sentiment are two ways of talking about consumer attitudes. The consensus estimate is to increase from 75.7 to 75.8. What it means to you:  Consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of the economy, so the markets are always dying to know what consumers are up to and how they might behave in the near future. The more confident consumers are about the economy and their own personal finances, the more likely they are to spend. With this in mind, it’s easy to see how this index of consumer attitudes gives insight to the direction of the economy.

Employment Cost Index: A measure of total employee compensation costs, including wages and salaries as well as benefits. The employment cost index (ECI) is the broadest measure of labor costs. What it means to you: By tracking labor costs, investors can gain a sense of whether businesses will feel the need to raise prices. If wage inflation threatens, it’s a good bet that interest rates will rise, bond and stock prices will fall, and the only investors in a good mood will be the ones who tracked the employment cost index and adjusted their portfolios to anticipate these events.

Hello, and welcome to Real Estate Reality Radio. The most important hour of radio every Friday from 9 to 10 on WBCB 1490 am. Thank you for joining Vince and me. For those of you who are not familiar with the show I am the guy with a bow tie and a bit of an attitude and Vince is the fun affable best friend. Our show is dedicated to dispelling the myths associated with Real Estate and finance in your marketplace.

Within every market there are obstacles and solutions on the path to tremendous opportunities. Vince and I think most people are looking for practical advice. Please feel free to call 215-740-8999 or visit peterbuchsbaum.com.

Please join us live on the web at www.wbcb1490.com from 9:00am to 10:00 am every Friday.

So last week we discussed the positives and negatives of Reverse mortgages.  This week was full of great current events: New Rules to make Short Sales Short and It is Safe to Sell your House again.  Today Vince and I are joined by Alison Tulio of Midatlantic Tax Solutions LLC. MidAtlantic Tax Solutions, LLC is a consulting firm that specializes in reducing property taxes. Our Real Estate Attorneys and State Certified Real Estate Appraisers are experienced and have a proven record of success. The professionals that work with us are focused on the local real estate markets and tax laws. As a result, we have a comprehensive understanding of the local procedures and protocols necessary to effectively achieve tax relief for our clients. At MidAtlantic, our goal is to reduce your property taxes and save you money. For FAQs please follow the link.

Today we have the opportunity to spend an hour with Alison to learn more about how to potentially reduce your real estate tax liability.  .

Please join us live at www.wbcb1490.com for the open discussion with Alison Tulio.

Each week we discuss the myths of the mortgage market. It is not about rate. A higher rate with no mortgage insurance may provide a lower payment.

Next week we hope to be joined by Brian Mira who buys and sells homes.  We are hosting another Home Retention Seminar on Thursday April 26^th at CMS Appraisals located at 65 W. Street Road, Warminster, PA along with Right Side Up.